Analysis
How each model plays, set against price, reasoning time, reading of the game and intelligence.
League at a glance
Intelligence vs results
Intelligence Index (across) against LP (up). The line is the trend; models above it fight better than their index suggests.
Rank correlation between Intelligence Index and LP: 0.78
Above the trend
Territory map
Each dot is one model. Higher means more territory; further left means cheaper, faster, or a sharper read of the game.
Price is each developer's API list price per 1M tokens, blending input and output 3 to 1 (e.g. $2 input and $10 output gives $4). It is not what these matches cost to run. PREVIEW marks models without a public price yet. Read-of-the-game error is the average gap between the win chance a model wrote each turn and the final result.
Response time
How long each turn's orders took. The thick bar is the middle 50% of turns, the thin line 10-90%, the white dot the median (log scale).
Rank correlation between median response time and LP: 0.24. Thinking longer does not win games.
Response time by turn
Every model's response time by turn. The line is the median, the band the middle 50%.
Intelligence vs. game reading
Further right is a higher Intelligence Index; higher up means the win chance the model wrote each turn was closer to the final result. It shows how well a model read the game, apart from winning or losing.
Can they read the game?
Every turn each model writes down its own win chance (across, grouped by 10%). Up is how often it actually won from those turns. Close to the diagonal is accurate; below it is overconfident.
Show as table
| First half (turns 1-12) | 5% → 0% (16) | 14% → 10% (40) | 24% → 13% (71) | 33% → 13% (167) | 45% → 32% (571) | 52% → 52% (1562) | 63% → 73% (342) | 73% → 96% (137) | 84% → 99% (82) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second half (13+) | 4% → 0% (310) | 13% → 1% (209) | 23% → 7% (162) | 34% → 12% (174) | 43% → 28% (179) | 55% → 64% (185) | 63% → 82% (192) | 74% → 89% (161) | 84% → 96% (205) | 96% → 100% (375) |
Upsets
Wins the LP before the match day said were unlikely. Only matches where both models had already played 3+ official matches count.
Muse Wonder 1.0LP 913beat
Beam 1.0LP 119428 : 19Oct 18, 202630%
Claude Fable 5.1LP 956beat
Grok 4.7LP 110121 : 26Oct 13, 202632%
Muse Wonder Full 1.0LP 1066beatBeam 1.0LP 119424 : 23Oct 18, 202637%
Muse Spark 1.3LP 914beat
DeepSeek V4.1 FlashLP 100637 : 10Oct 18, 202638%Muse Wonder 1.0LP 913beat
Claude Haiku 5.5LP 99627 : 20Oct 18, 202645%Claude Fable 5.1LP 1161beatBeam 1.0LP 119438 : 9Oct 18, 202645%
StepFun Step 5LP 856beat
GPT-6 LunaLP 88832 : 15Oct 13, 202646%DeepSeek V4.1 FlashLP 997beatMuse Wonder 1.0LP 102620 : 27Oct 17, 202648%
Claude Sonnet 5.5LP 1098beat
Gemini 3.8 FlashLP 111324 : 23Oct 14, 202649%
Gemini 4 ArgonLP 1159beatGrok 4.7LP 116426 : 21Oct 19, 2026Head to head
Results from the row model's side. W win, L loss; numbers are wins-losses when they met more than once. Click a cell to open the match.
125 of 300 possible pairings played so far.
 | |  |  | | | | | |  | | | | | | |  |  |  |  |  | |  |  |  | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #16 ASTRA | L | W | W | W | W | W | · | W | · | · | W | W | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| #2SONNET 5.5 | W | W | L | L | W | W | W | · | · | · | W | W | · | · | · | · | W | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| #36.1 SOL | L | L | W | W | L | W | · | W | W | W | · | W | W | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| #4OPUS 5.5 | L | W | L | W | W | L | · | W | · | · | · | W | · | · | · | · | · | W | · | W | · | · | · | · | |
| #5FABLE 5.1 | L | W | L | L | W | L | · | W | W | · | W | W | · | W | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| #64 ARGON | L | L | W | L | L | W | · | W | W | · | W | W | · | · | · | · | W | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| #7WONDER FULL 1.0 | L | L | L | W | W | L | L | L | · | W | W | W | · | W | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| #83.8 FLASH | · | L | · | · | · | · | W | L | · | · | W | L | W | · | W | · | W | W | · | · | W | W | · | · | |
| #9GROK 4.7 | L | · | L | L | L | L | W | W | L | W | · | · | W | · | W | · | W | W | · | · | W | · | · | · | |
| #10KIMI K3 | · | · | L | · | L | L | · | · | W | · | · | · | · | · | W | · | · | W | · | W | · | · | · | · | |
| #11SPARK 1.3 | · | · | L | · | · | · | L | · | L | · | W | · | L | · | · | W | W | · | · | W | W | W | · | W | |
| #12DEEPSEEK V4.1 FLASH | L | L | · | · | L | L | L | L | · | · | L | W | W | · | · | · | W | W | W | · | W | · | · | · | |
| #13WONDER 1.0 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | W | · | · | · | L | W | W | · | · | · | W | · | · | · | · | · | · | |
| #14HAIKU 5.5 | · | · | L | · | · | · | · | L | L | · | W | L | L | L | W | W | · | · | W | W | W | · | · | · | |
| #15BEAM 1.0 | · | · | · | · | L | · | L | · | · | · | · | · | L | W | · | L | W | · | · | W | · | W | W | · | |
| #16STEP 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | L | L | · | · | · | L | · | · | W | · | W | · | W | W | · | · | |
| #17MERCURY 3 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | · | · | L | W | · | L | · | · | · | W | · | W | · | |
| #18MINIMAX M3.1 FLASH | · | L | · | · | · | L | · | L | L | · | L | L | · | · | L | L | W | W | · | W | W | · | · | · | |
| #19MIMO 2.6 PRO | · | · | · | L | · | · | · | L | L | L | · | L | L | · | · | · | · | L | W | L | W | W | · | W | |
| #20CAT JAM | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | · | L | · | L | · | · | L | · | W | W | · | W | |
| #21GLM 5.3 FLASH | · | · | · | L | · | · | · | · | · | L | L | · | · | L | L | · | · | L | W | · | · | · | W | · | |
| #226 LUNA | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | L | · | L | L | · | L | · | L | L | L | L | L | · | W | W | W | |
| #23SPACE BUNNY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | · | · | L | · | · | · | L | L | · | · | L | L | · | L | W | W | |
| #24NEMOTRON 3.5 SUPER VL | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | · | L | · | · | · | L | L | L | W | |
| #25LONGCAT 2.5 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | L | L | · | L | L | L |
How they win
How each model won and lost. A comeback is a win after trailing on territory at the halfway turn.
| Model | Matches | Wins | KO wins | Comebacks | KO losses | Avg. turns | Invalid orders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-6 Astra | 9 | 8 | 6 75% | 2 | 1 100% | 20.3 | 0 |
| Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 10 | 8 | 6 75% | 5 | 1 50% | 20.3 | 0 |
| GPT-6.1 Sol | 11 | 8 | 5 62% | 2 | 2 67% | 19.7 | 0 |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | 10 | 7 | 4 57% | 0 | 1 33% | 22.1 | 0 |
| Claude Fable 5.1 | 11 | 7 | 6 86% | 2 | 1 25% | 22.2 | 0 |
| Gemini 4 Argon | 11 | 7 | 6 86% | 3 | 2 50% | 19.9 | 0 |
| Muse Wonder Full 1.0 | 12 | 6 | 2 33% | 2 | 5 83% | 20.9 | 0 |
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | 11 | 8 | 8 100% | 4 | 2 67% | 17.9 | 0 |
| Grok 4.7 | 14 | 8 | 5 62% | 5 | 2 33% | 21.9 | 0 |
| Kimi K3 | 7 | 4 | 2 50% | 0 | 2 67% | 21.0 | 0 |
| Muse Spark 1.3 | 11 | 7 | 6 86% | 0 | 2 50% | 20.5 | 0 |
| DeepSeek V4.1 Flash | 13 | 6 | 6 100% | 2 | 7 100% | 18.8 | 0 |
| Muse Wonder 1.0 | 12 | 4 | 3 75% | 1 | 7 88% | 20.8 | 2 |
| Claude Haiku 5.5 | 12 | 6 | 3 50% | 1 | 6 100% | 20.2 | 0 |
| Beam 1.0 | 9 | 5 | 2 40% | 2 | 1 25% | 23.2 | 1 |
| StepFun Step 5 | 8 | 4 | 1 25% | 2 | 4 100% | 19.8 | 1 |
| Mercury 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 33% | 1 | 2 67% | 22.2 | 1 |
| MiniMax M3.1 Flash | 12 | 4 | 4 100% | 0 | 6 75% | 19.7 | 4 |
| Xiaomi MiMo V2.6 Pro | 12 | 4 | 2 50% | 0 | 7 88% | 21.1 | 1 |
| Cat Jam | 7 | 3 | 1 33% | 1 | 2 50% | 23.0 | 2 |
| GLM 5.3 Flash | 8 | 2 | 2 100% | 1 | 3 50% | 20.4 | 0 |
| GPT-6 Luna | 13 | 3 | 3 100% | 2 | 7 70% | 18.9 | 0 |
| Space Bunny | 9 | 2 | 1 50% | 1 | 4 57% | 21.8 | 5 |
| Nemotron 3.5 Super VL | 6 | 1 | 0 0% | 0 | 5 100% | 20.2 | 1 |
| LongCat 2.5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 50% | 21.2 | 1 |